If This War Doesn't Stop — What Will Happen to the World?
If This War Doesn't Stop —
What Will Happen
to the World?
The Middle East is on fire. The US, Israel, and Iran are locked in war. Here is what experts predict will happen — to the world, to India, and to ordinary people like you and me.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive military attack on Iran. Since then, bombs have fallen, missiles have flown, oil prices have skyrocketed, and thousands of civilians have lost their lives. The war is now in its fourth week — and there is no ceasefire in sight. So the big question everybody is asking is: What happens next? What will this war do to the world — to prices, to food, to peace — in the coming months and years?
Let us try to answer that question in simple, honest language — no complicated jargon, no hidden agenda. Just the truth, as clearly as we can see it.
"Every additional week of disruption makes recovery harder and more expensive. The world had not yet healed from COVID, tariffs, and inflation — and now this."— World Economic Forum, 2026
Oil Will Get Costlier — And Everything Else Will Too
The most immediate and painful consequence of this war is the rise in oil prices. When the war began, oil prices shot up by 15% in just the first few days. Today, oil is trading at over $112 per barrel — and some experts warn it could reach $150 if the war drags on.
Why does this matter to you? Because oil is the backbone of the modern economy. Higher oil means higher petrol and diesel prices. Higher diesel means trucks cost more to run. Trucks costing more means goods cost more to transport. And that means everything in the market — vegetables, medicines, clothes, electronics — becomes more expensive.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage of water between Iran and Oman. One-fifth of the entire world's oil passes through it every single day. Iran has effectively blocked this strait since the war began — and over 3,000 ships are currently stranded. This is the single biggest reason for the global economic crisis right now.
Goldman Sachs, one of the world's most respected financial institutions, has warned that higher oil prices could last well into 2027. The IMF, which monitors the global economy, had predicted 3.3% global growth for 2026 — but has now started revising that number downward.
Food May Become Scarce — A Hunger Crisis Looms
Here is something that many people don't know: fertilizer is made using natural gas. And a huge portion of the world's natural gas comes from the Middle East — especially from Qatar's massive LNG facilities, which were already hit in the war.
When gas supply is disrupted, fertilizer production falls. When fertilizer becomes scarce, farmers across the world — from India to Brazil to Africa — cannot grow enough crops. This means lower food production and higher food prices in the months ahead.
The timing is particularly brutal. Spring planting season has just begun in the Northern Hemisphere. Farmers in India, Canada, Brazil, and sub-Saharan Africa are right now making purchasing decisions for seeds and fertilizers — against a background of price spikes and deep uncertainty. Experts warn that crop yields later in 2026 could be significantly lower than normal.
Over 400,000 metric tonnes of Indian basmati rice meant for export are currently stuck at ports or in transit, as the war has disrupted shipping lanes through the Middle East. Roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports go to the Middle East. This export blockage is causing losses for Indian farmers and exporters right now.
Inflation Will Rise — Your Buying Power Will Fall
When oil goes up and food gets expensive, the result is called inflation — the general rise in prices across the economy. Inflation means your same salary buys you less than it did before.
Countries around the world — including India — had only recently begun to bring inflation under control after the shocks of the COVID years. This war threatens to reverse all that hard work.
In the United States, Goldman Sachs estimates that inflation could rise from 2.4% to 3% by the end of 2026 if oil prices stay high. In Asia, central banks that were planning to cut interest rates (which makes loans cheaper for ordinary people and businesses) are now being forced to delay those cuts — or even raise rates. Higher interest rates mean more expensive home loans, car loans, and business loans.
- Rupee may weaken further against the US Dollar, making imports more expensive.
- Petrol and cooking gas prices are likely to rise in the coming weeks and months.
- Interest rate cuts by RBI may be delayed, keeping home loans and business loans costly.
- India's basmati rice exports are already stuck — farmers and exporters losing money.
- Indian workers in the Gulf — over 8 million of them — face uncertainty about their safety and their jobs.
- India's BRICS summit later in 2026 may face diplomatic complications as both Iran and UAE are members.
World Trade Is Being Choked — Supply Chains Breaking Down
The Middle East is not just a source of oil. It sits at the crossroads of global trade. Ships carrying goods from Asia to Europe, Africa to Europe, and across the Indian Ocean all pass through this region. With the war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, shipping has become dangerous, expensive, and slow.
Insurance companies have cancelled or drastically repriced their coverage for ships passing through the area. Shipping companies are rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa — adding weeks to delivery times and enormous extra cost.
These disruptions affect everyone. Semiconductor factories in Taiwan that need Gulf chemicals. Steel mills in South Korea. Farms in Brazil that need fertilizer. Solar panel manufacturers who need gas-based feedstocks. The war has even taken nearly one-third of the world's helium supply off the market — helium that is used in MRI machines, computer chip manufacturing, and scientific research.
"For financial markets, the question is brutal and simple: does this end in days — or does it become a forever war that swallows an entire region?"— ING Bank Research, March 2026
The Risk of a Bigger, Wider War Is Real
Right now, the war is between the USA, Israel, and Iran. But wars have a tendency to spread. Here are the frightening possibilities that experts are watching closely:
Lebanon: Israeli ground forces have already expanded into Lebanon, and the death toll there has crossed 1,000. Hezbollah — Iran's powerful ally — could escalate dramatically if pushed too far.
Yemen: The Houthi movement in Yemen, backed by Iran, had previously launched devastating attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. They had paused. But with the war raging, they are likely to resume attacks — closing the Red Sea as an alternative shipping route.
Iraq and Syria: Iran-backed militia groups in both countries have begun attacking US military bases. The US has responded with airstrikes. This means the war is already quietly spreading beyond Iran's borders.
Russia and China: Both countries are watching carefully. Russia has strategic interests in Iran. China gets 80–90% of its Gulf oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither country wants this war — but both may be tempted to exploit the chaos for their own geopolitical gains.
European nations — especially Spain, Norway, and Turkey — have openly criticised the US-Israeli attacks as violations of international law. NATO allies are divided on how to respond. Spain has even refused to let the US use its joint military bases to support the war effort. This is a crisis not just for the Middle East, but for the entire Western alliance.
What Are the Two Possible Futures?
At this point, experts broadly see two scenarios unfolding. Here they are, honestly laid out:
A Short War with Quick Recovery
The US achieves its military objectives within the next few weeks — destroying Iran's nuclear programme and missile capability. A ceasefire is agreed. The Strait of Hormuz reopens. Oil prices fall back down. The global economy recovers within 6–12 months. This is the scenario Trump is hinting at when he says the US is "winding down."
A Prolonged "Forever War"
Iran fights on using guerrilla tactics, militia proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and cyberattacks. The Strait remains blocked for months. Oil hits $150. Inflation surges globally. A new regime in Iran destabilises the whole region. A global recession becomes likely. This is the scenario that keeps economists awake at night.
Most analysts believe the best-case scenario is more likely — but they caution strongly that in such a volatile situation, the worst case is never impossible. The Trump administration appears to want a short, sharp war. But wars rarely follow the plan of those who start them.
The Human Cost — What the Numbers Don't Show
Behind every statistic in this article is a human being. The people of Iran — celebrating their New Year, Nowruz, as bombs fell on their city. The 33 wounded in the Israeli town of Arad. The more than 1,000 dead in Lebanon. The families in Gaza who have known nothing but war for over two years. The Indian worker in Dubai who doesn't know if his flight home is safe. The farmer in Bihar who cannot afford the new fertilizer price.
War is not an abstract event. It is a lived nightmare for millions of ordinary people. Every day this war continues, the human toll grows — in lives, in livelihoods, in hope destroyed.
"What We Know for Certain"
The longer this war lasts, the worse it will be for everyone — rich nations and poor ones, oil exporters and importers, soldiers and civilians. The world needed peace. Instead, it got another war. And this time, no country — not even India — can afford to look the other way.
The only real solution to this crisis is diplomacy and ceasefire. India, as a rising global power with friendly relations with both Iran and the United States, has a unique role to play. BRICS, the UN, and global civil society must all raise their voices for an immediate end to hostilities. As the ancient wisdom of Vidura Niti reminds us: "A king who destroys without necessity destroys himself along with his enemies."
Stay informed. Stay calm. And pray for peace. 🙏
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